At some point the Paradox organizer is getting the proper thumbnail but NOT doing the proper update/install in the background and then doing a metadata consistency check on the mod to ensure that it is the latest version. The Paradox launcher does not do this for Steam mods, or have the equivalent of a 'Force Download' button on the mod line. Other mod managers (Vortex and Mod Organizer 2) both will allow for a consistency check by going back to Nexus and offering to download the most recent version to ensure a full update of a mod and install it. The launcher will show a recent thumbnail for the mod and yet indicate it is for an older version of the game.

Running on 2020.6.2 and having the same problem of mods not properly updating.